基于PSRM模型的宁波市生态脆弱性时空演变及其驱动因素
PDF下载 (48)陈伟峰,苏 雷.基于PSRM模型的宁波市生态脆弱性时空演变及其驱动因素[J].宁波大学学报(理工版),2025,38(1):91-99.DOI:10.20098/j.cnki.1001-5132.2024.0727
CHEN Weifeng,SU Lei.Spatio-temporal evolution of ecological vulnerability and its driving factors in Ningbo City based on PSRM model[J].Journal of Ningbo University(Natural Science & Engineering Edition),2025,38(1):91-99.DOI:10.20098/j.cnki.1001-5132.2024.0727
| Title: | Spatio-temporal evolution of ecological vulnerability and its driving factors in Ningbo City based on PSRM model |
| 作者: | 陈伟峰, 苏 雷 |
| Author(s): | CHEN Weifeng, SU Lei |
| 关键词: | 生态脆弱性; PSRM模型; 地理探测器; CA-Markov模型 |
| Keywords: | ecological vulnerability; PSRM model; geo-detector; CA-Markov model |
| 分类号: | X826 |
| DOI: | 10.20098/j.cnki.1001-5132.2024.0727 |
| 文献标识码: | A |
| 摘要: | 生态脆弱性是衡量区域生态水平的核心议题. 为助力国家实现“十三五”生态质量总体改善的目标, 利用PSRM模型, 选取pm2.5、高程、NDVI等12个指标, 结合综合赋权法、热点分析、CA-Markov模型、地理探测器等方法, 探究宁波市生态脆弱性时空演变特征及其驱动因子. 结果表明: 宁波市的生态脆弱性呈中等水平, 在2000—2020年逐渐降低, 但在预测的时间点(2030年)有小幅度升高; 冷热点区域与脆弱性格局基本一致; pm2.5、年平均降水、年平均气温、生境质量、归一化植被指数、植被净初级生产力为宁波市生态脆弱性的主要驱动因子. 研究结果可为区域生态保护和可持续发展提供科学依据. |
| Abstract: | Ecological vulnerability is the core issue in measuring regional ecological level. In order to help achieve the goal of overall improvement of ecological quality in the 13th National Five-Year Plan, the PSRM model was used, and twelve indicators, including pm2.5, elevation, NDVI, etc., were selected, together with the integrated weighting method, hotspot analysis, CA-Markov model, geo-detector, etc., to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological vulnerability of Ningbo and the driving factors of ecological vulnerability. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of Ningbo was at a medium level, gradually decreasing from 2000 to 2020, but will be slightly increasing at the predicted time point of 2030; the cold and hotspot areas were basically consistent with the vulnerability pattern; pm2.5, annual average precipitation, annual average temperature, habitat quality, normalized vegetation index, and net primary productivity of vegetation were the main drivers of ecological vulnerability in Ningbo. The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. |
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| 备注/Memo: | 收稿日期: 2024−07−29. 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址: http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ 基金项目: 广东省教育厅特色创新项目（420N50）. 第一作者: 陈伟峰, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向: 景观与区域生态学. E-mail: 2263963785@qq.com *通信作者: 苏雷, 博士/教授, 主要研究方向: 景观与区域生态学. E-mail: sulei@zsc.edu.cn 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址：http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ |
