社会人口指数与饮食风险因素—— 1990—2021年结直肠癌的全球及区域趋势研究
刘馨月,徐雷艇.社会人口指数与饮食风险因素—— 1990—2021年结直肠癌的全球及区域趋势研究[J].宁波大学学报(理工版),2026,39(3):113-120.DOI:10.20098/j.cnki.1001-5132.2025.1220
LIU Xinyue,XU Leiting.Socio-demographic index and dietary risk factors: global and regional trends of colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021[J].Journal of Ningbo University(Natural Science & Engineering Edition),2026,39(3):113-120.DOI:10.20098/j.cnki.1001-5132.2025.1220
| Title: | Socio-demographic index and dietary risk factors: global and regional trends of colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021 |
| 作者: | 刘馨月, 徐雷艇 |
| Author(s): | LIU Xinyue, XU Leiting |
| 关键词: | 结直肠癌; 饮食风险因素; 全球疾病负担; 社会人口指数; 健康不平等分析 |
| Keywords: | colorectal cancer; dietary risk factors; global burden of disease; socio-demographic index; health inequality analysis |
| 分类号: | R735.3；R181.3 |
| DOI: | 10.20098/j.cnki.1001-5132.2025.1220 |
| 文献标识码: | A |
| 摘要: | 结直肠癌（Colorectal Cancer，CRC）是全球性发病与进展和Socio-Demographic Index，SDI）与饮食风险因素对结直肠癌疾病负担的联合效应仍缺乏系统研究。本文基于全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease，GBD）2021数据库，分析全球及五类不同SDI区域结直肠癌的年龄标准化死亡率（Age-Standardized Mortality Rate，ASMR）与分性别年龄死亡率（Age-Sex- Specific Mortality Rate，ASSMR），并开展健康不平等分析研究。通过JoinPoint回归模型评估饮食风险因素所致结直肠癌疾病负担的时间变化趋势，运用贝叶斯（Bayesian）年龄-时期-队列模型进行发病风险预测，研究结果可为不同社会发展水平地区制定结直肠癌预防策略提供科学依据。 |
| Abstract: | Colorectal Cancer (CRC) represents one of the major public health challenges globally, imposing a significant burden on both healthcare and socio-economic systems. Factors such as regional economic development levels and dietary habits are closely related to the occurrence and progression of CRC. Currently, there lacks a systematic research on the combined impact of socio-demographic index (SDI) and dietary risk factors on the disease burden of CRC. Based on the global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 database, this article analyzes the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-sex-specific mortality rate (ASSMR) of CRC globally and across five different SDI regions, and conducts health inequality analysis. By utilizing JoinPoint regression, it assesses the temporal trends in the disease burden of CRC caused by dietary risk factors. Also, it accomplishes risk prediction by employing Bayesian age-period-cohort models. The study provides a scientific basis for formulating CRC prevention strategies in regions with varying levels of social development. |
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| 备注/Memo: | 收稿日期：2025-12-27 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址：http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ 基金项目：浙江省自然科学基金（LY16H070001）；宁波市“科创甬江2035”重点研发计划（2024Z231） 第一作者：刘馨月，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为基础医学。E-mail: 2311140008@nbu.edu.cn *通信作者：徐雷艇，副教授，主要研究方向为基础医学。E-mail: xuleiting@nbu.edu.cn 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址：http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ |
