宁波市2008~2012年手足口病时空聚集性分析
PDF下载 (26300)张添方 1,刘志芳 1,祝 苗 1,易 波 2,许国章 2,顾 华 3,董长征 1*.宁波市2008~2012年手足口病时空聚集性分析[J].宁波大学学报(理工版),2017,30(3):106-109.DOI:
ZHANG Tian-fang 1,LIU Zhi-fang 1,ZHU Miao 1,YI Bo 2,XU Guo-zhang 2,GU Hua 3,DONG Chang-zheng 1*.Spatial-temporal analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo, 2008-2012[J].Journal of Ningbo University(Natural Science & Engineering Edition),2017,30(3):106-109.DOI:
| Title: | Spatial-temporal analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo, 2008-2012 |
| 作者: | 张添方 1, 刘志芳 1, 祝 苗 1, 易 波 2, 许国章 2, 顾 华 3, 董长征 1* |
| Author(s): | ZHANG Tian-fang 1, LIU Zhi-fang 1, ZHU Miao 1, YI Bo 2, XU Guo-zhang 2, GU Hua 3, DONG Chang-zheng 1* |
| 关键词: | 手足口病; 时空聚集性分析; 空间流行病学 |
| Keywords: | hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD); spatial-temporal cluster analysis; spatial epidemiology |
| 分类号: | R183 |
| 文献标识码: | A |
| 摘要: | 以街道/镇/乡为基本空间单位, 采用时空扫描统计量对宁波市2008~2012年手足口病的时空聚集性特征进行分析. 结果显示: 2009~2012年宁波均出现了有统计学意义的一级时空聚集区, 聚集区的相对风险介于3.76~5.37, 即聚集区内是聚集区外手足口病发病风险的约3~5倍. 时空聚集性出现的主要区域为宁海和象山的绝大多数街道/镇/乡. 宁海和象山是宁波市手足口病的发病热点地区, 需要采取针对性措施进行重点防控. |
| Abstract: | Surveillance data of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) of Ningbo city during the period of 2008-2012 was analyzed by the spatial-temporal scan statistic. The main purpose of the study was to detect high-incidence clusters and the basic spatial units were sub-district/town/township. The results showed that the most likely clusters with statistical significances occurred in Ningbo annually during the period of 2009-2012. The relative risks ranged from 3.76 to 5.37, which meant the risks of HFMD in these clusters were 3-5 times higher than those out of the clusters. Some sub-districts/towns/townships of Ninghai county and Xiangshan county were the high-incidence clusters of HFMD in Ningbo. In summary, Ninghai county and Xiangshan county were the hot-spots of HFMD epidemics in Ningbo and for the control and prevention of HFMD epidemics. |
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| 备注/Memo: | 收稿日期: 2016-04-16. 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址: http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ 基金项目: 宁波市自然科学基金（2015A610190）; 浙江省教育厅基金（Y201533182）; 浙江省重点科技创新团队（2011R50021）. 第一作者: 张添方（1990-）, 男, 湖北孝感人, 在读硕士研究生, 主要研究方向: 传染病预警模型. E-mail: 564545237@qq.com *通信作者: 董长征（1978-）, 男, 浙江丽水人, 博士/副教授, 主要研究方向: 传染病预警模型; 生物信息学. E-mail: dongchangzheng@nbu.edu.cn 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址：http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ |
