基于因素分析的出租车运力规模预测
PDF下载 (803)洪 杰 1,2,3,叶晓飞 1,2,3,黄正锋 1,2,3,郑彭军 1,2,3*.基于因素分析的出租车运力规模预测[J].宁波大学学报(理工版),2017,30(3):116-120.DOI:
HONG Jie 1,2,3,YE Xiao-fei 1,2,3,HUANG Zheng-feng 1,2,3,ZHENG Peng-jun 1,2,3*.Factor analysis based prediction of taxi capacity scale[J].Journal of Ningbo University(Natural Science & Engineering Edition),2017,30(3):116-120.DOI:
| Title: | Factor analysis based prediction of taxi capacity scale |
| 作者: | 洪 杰 1, 2, 3, 叶晓飞 1, 2, 3, 黄正锋 1, 2, 3, 郑彭军 1, 2, 3* |
| Author(s): | HONG Jie 1, 2, 3, YE Xiao-fei 1, 2, 3, HUANG Zheng-feng 1, 2, 3, ZHENG Peng-jun 1, 2, 3* |
| 关键词: | 出租车; 网约车; 运力规模; 影响因素分析; 多元线性回归 |
| Keywords: | taxi; internet-based car; capacity scale; factor analysis; multiple linear regression |
| 分类号: | U492.4+1 |
| 文献标识码: | A |
| 摘要: | 随着网约车的兴起和城市公共交通建设的不断完善, 传统出租车行业面临的竞争不断加剧, 可能出现出租车运力规模过剩的问题. 通过影响因素分析, 筛选8个主要因素, 构建了基于多元回归的出租车运力规模关系模型, 利用宁波市客管局实测数据进行模型标定, 并引入网约车修正系数, 预测未来年的出租车运力规模. 结果表明: 2017年宁波市出租车运力需求为增长态势, 而巡游出租车运力规模因网约车的冲击仍将减少. |
| Abstract: | With the development of internet-based car services and the improvement of urban public transportation systems, the operation of traditional taxi industry becomes more and more difficult. Problems arising from the excessive capacity supply of taxi have been more and more noted by the public. To predict a reasonable taxi capacity scale, we construct a taxi capacity scale relational model based on eight major factors using multiple regression method. The model is calibrated using empirical data from the Ningbo passenger transportation authority. By citing correction factor of network cars, the model, can be used to predict taxi capacity scale for next year. The results reveal that for Ningbo in 2017 the taxi transport capacity demand may climb, but taxi capacity scale should be shrunk given the impacts of internet-based car service on the conventional operation mode with taxi business. |
| 参考文献 /References: | [1] DOUGLAS G W. Price Regulation and optimal service standards: The taxicab Industry[J]. Journal of Transport Economics & Policy, 1972, 20(2):116-127. [2] MANSKI C F, WRIGHT J D. Nature of equilibrium in the market for taxi services[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1976, 619:11-15. [3] BEESLEY M E, GLAISTER S. Information for regulation: The case of taxi[J]. The Economic Journal, 1983, 93(93):594-615. [4] WONG K I, WONG S C, YANG H. Modeling urban taxi services in congested road networks with elastic demand [J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2001, 35:819-842. [5] ENRIQUE F L, JOAQUIN D C C, JULIO B M. A diagrammatic analysis of the market for cruising taxis[J]. Logistics and Transportation Review, 2006, 42(6):354- 371. [6] 陆建, 王炜. 城市出租车拥有量确定方法[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2004, 4(1):92-95. [7] 边扬, 王炜, 陆建. 城市出租车运营网络平衡模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2007, 7(2):93-98. [8] 丁浩. 城市交通管理中的出租车规划模型[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2008, 38(6):95-103. [9] 周萌萌, 王林. 出租车运力规模研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报, 2009, 31(19):117-121. [10] 宋安, 刘琦. 出租车保有量评价与预测[J]. 交通科学与经济, 2010, 12(3):34-36. |
| 备注/Memo: | 收稿日期: 2016-06-11. 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址: http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（51408323）; 浙江省自然科学基金（LY15E080013）; 欧盟PORTIS项目（619713）. 第一作者: 洪杰（1985-）, 男, 浙江宁波人, 在读硕士研究生, 主要研究方向: 港航技术及管理工程. E-mail: 290723892@qq.com *通信作者: 郑彭军（1965-）, 男, 浙江宁波人, 研究员, 主要研究方向: 智能交通系统、港航技术及管理工程. E-mail: zhengpengjun@nbu.edu.cn 宁波大学学报（理工版）网址：http://journallg.nbu.edu.cn/ |
